Every now and then I write that Marlins fans who felt ill over the off-season antics of the front office shouldn't feel pressure by the media to attend games if they don't want to. But I wondered if the lack of fans in the stands has an effect on the team's play - the supposed "tenth-player" effect. I'd rather not promote something that may hinder the team's chances.
So yesterday I woke up the infamous Cracked Stat Dept. and asked them to see whether the size of the crowds at our home park has had an effect in the won-loss records of the past.
In their study they used the official attendance figures, the accuracy of which has been questioned but it's what we've got. They also ignored the quality of the crowds - whether or not they were filled with some other team's (or music group's) fans - and just went for quanity. It was also Saturday night, so they were only sober enough to do one year - 2007.
They found that 2007's home games split somewhat neatly into 2 halves, centering around the number 15,000. 40 home games had crowds below 15,000, and 41 were above 15,000. Of the 40 under-attended games the Marlins' record was 17 wins and 23 losses. Of the 41 games with greater attendance the record was 18 and 23 - only one extra win.
They then decided to go to extremes and compared the least-attended games with the most-attended. In the 20 games with the smallest crowds the Marlins' record was 8-12; in the 20 games with the largest crowds their record was 9-11. Still just a one-game difference in favor of the big crowds.
When they went down to just the 10 least-attended and most-attended games there was a reversal - the one-game advantage switched to the least-attended games (6-4, as opposed to 5-5 for the most-attended). When I asked whether that is statistically significant, the Cracked Stat Dept. was too drunk to say anything.
So my guess is the effect seems negligible. And you can still go to the games if you want to.
2 comments:
It's possible that differences in attendance of 5,000 fans or more are simply negligible in a ballpark as big as JoeProPhin Stadium. I mean how much does the atmosphere really change when there's 18,000 in the stands as opposed to 12,000?
Now, the World Series games I attended are different matter. 66,000 in the stadium with everything on the line. My guess is that makes some difference. But in general I don't think home/road doesn't affect the team except for the configuration of the ballparks.
Duh, my english not so good there. Take 2.
But in general I don't think home/road affects the team except for the configuration of the ballparks.
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