NL East Future Preview - Let the Streaks Speak

The predictions for the season are being made, some by computer simulation, some through experience and instinct.

My purpose today is to lay out the historical streaks in the early part of past baseball seasons that may give an indication of success or non-success for a team's entire season, and flag those early games for the NL East.

Example: One of the more interesting of these streaks involves the Marlins, and it happens early. Since way back in the post-strike year of 1996, Marlins games played on April 10 have reflected the direction in which each season has finished.

In other words, seasons from '96 on in which the Marlins have won on April 10 have ended up as Marlins' winning years, while those years with losses on April 10 have resulted in under-.500 seasons for the Fish.

With the exception of the 2006 Joe Girardi season, in which the Marlins didn't play on April 10, that makes (so far) thirteen years in a row in which this congruence has occurred.

year    April 10 results   season w/l
1996    FLA @ SDP L 0 3      80-82
1997    FLA @ CHC W 1 0      92-70
1998    FLA @ PIT L 1 4      54-108
1999     FLA PHI L 2 5       64-98
2000    FLA @ MIL L 3 4      79-82
2001    FLA @ PHI L 6 7      76-86
2002     FLA MON L 7 9       79-83
2003     FLA NYM W 4 3       91-71
2004     FLA PHI W 5 3       83-79
2005     FLA WSN W 8 0       83-79
2006        no game          78-84
2007     FLA MIL L 2 3       71-91
2008    FLA @ WSN W 4 3      84-77
2009     FLA NYM W 5 4       87-75

Another (less-spectacular) date is April 19, where this same pattern has occurred for the Fish since 2002. For those who would rather check game numbers instead of dates, Game Number 37 has shown the same pattern since 2003 (Game 37 this year is scheduled to be the May 15th game here against the Mets).

Here now are the dates and/or game numbers for some of the longer streaks of early predictive games for the rest of the NL East:

---THE NATS/EXPOS have a longer one of these predictive streaks than the Marlins, IF you discount the 2005 season where they inconveniently went 81-81, AND the two years (2004 and 2007) when they didn't play on this date - with that in mind, the team now known as the Nationals have been playing predictive games on May 10th since 1995. Their next best streak is the 18th game of the season, where (again discounting 2005) the pattern has continued since 2001.

---THE METS have had a predictive streak going on May 19 since 2002, but within that are three years when they didn't play ('03, '05 and '08). Better is Game No. 33, which has no gaps in the streak (unless they stop playing at Game No. 32), and has also lasted since 2002.

---THE BRAVES' longest early predictive streak is on May 10, which has been going on since 2002 (with a break in 2004). They have a much earlier one of these streaks, though - the second game of the season has been foreshadowing their season's results since 2004.

---THE PHILLIES' longer streaks of the early part of the season happen later - they have one since 2002 (with a gap in '06) on May 15, and since 2005 on the 49th game of the year.