Monday, August 15, 2005

Two Great Wins... But Now What's Coming?

Leaving Houston out of the equation for the moment, the 4-game series between Washington and Philadelphia that starts tonight makes it imperative that the Marlins win at least 2-out-of-3 from the Padres in their series starting tomorrow.

Of the 20 possible outcomes of these two series, the Marlins can improve their situation against both the Nats and the Phillies in only 4 ways - if the Fish sweep while the Nats or the Phils go 3-1, or if the Fish sweep or go 2-1 while the other series goes even.

While it's possible that the Marlins can improve their position against one or the other team - for example, even going into a tie with the Phils or ahead of the Nats while only winning one game against the Padres - this usually comes at the cost of a greater lead by the other team (in this example a 3.5 game advantage over the Marlins by the Nats for the Phillies tie, and a 4 game lead over the Fish by the Phils for a half-game lead over the Nats).

And, of course, if the unmentionable happens, both teams can open up greater leads over the Fish - up a 5-game lead for the Phillies or a 4.5-game lead for the Nats.

Unfortunately the Padres swept 3 games from the Marlins at Petco the last time they met, although that happened in the middle of a 22-6 May for San Diego. Since May the Padres have gone 25-45, and they have just been swept by the Phils at home.

CORRECTION: Ooops, make that 25-40.

1 comment:

photi said...

They still got a good chance, even though a couple of newspapers today don't seem to think so. Anything can happen in 45 games and they're only 2.5 games back and their starters went .081 last week. Not looking too bad.